Avalanche Journal: Brock Nelson signing adds stability, but not without risk

Stability and threat are normally contradictory terms but the Colorado Avalanche s latest big decision ties them together The Avs made a crucial commitment ahead of offseason shopping season retaining center Brock Nelson on a three-year contract with an annual million cap hit The move gives the Avalanche the largest part stability it s had at a key spot in the depth chart in years But that doesn t mean the deal doesn t also come with particular danger First the stability Colorado s quest to find a consistent No center to deploy behind Nathan MacKinnon has been one of the defining roster storylines of the past three seasons General manager Chris MacFarland and his staff have done a few strong work to keep the Avalanche among the league s Stanley Cup contenders despite losing Nazem Kadri to Calgary captain Gabe Landeskog to a defective right knee and several depth players from the run to one of the NHL s universal truths secondary guys who win the Cup get paid typically elsewhere That mentioned how the Avs have navigated replacing Kadri has had specific hiccups along the way Ryan Johansen was a miss and cost Colorado an upgraded draft pick to include him in the agreement for Sean Walker at the contract deadline The Avs used another premium asset defenseman Bo Byram to replace him with Casey Mittelstadt He looked like a solid long-term answer and earned a three-year contract after a nice end to the regular season and a solid playoff run Then Mittelstadt went into a huge funk this past season and the Avs had to deal a second-round pick and a decent prospect to swap him for Charlie Coyle who had far less production and slots in as the third center And then there s the price Colorado paid for Nelson which was critical The end upshot is Nelson for the next three years on a market-rate contract Eight centers will be or older next season with a salary cap hit that starts at million to million Nelson was more productive last season than five of the other seven one of the two who had better numbers was Kadri The process from Kadri to Nelson might cost the asset-thin Avs in a future bargain but they have a productive veteran who can excel in this role Assuming Landeskog can stay healthy and Valeri Nichushkin s off-ice troubles are far in the rear-view mirror the Avs could have the best top-six in the NHL next year Now about the hazard First there is Nelson s age He turns years old in October There is plenty of age-curve-related evidence out there We know that players at this stage of their career are in certain level of decline The best ones minimize it but even guys like Sidney Crosby and Jaromir Jagr weren t quite as good at and as they were earlier in their careers The Athletic s Dom Luszczyszyn had a list of comparable players right after the signing that didn t inspire confidence There s also another player who will be next season who s been in the news this past week New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider also just had his best seasons at age and but his age- year was a precipitous fall from grace and he now plays for Anaheim because of it There are a limited reasons to believe Nelson is a guy who can mitigate specific of the age-related decline He just had the three best seasons of his career at ages and Last year his age- season was his fourth-best in total production It also seems reasonable that more players are going to soften the landing at the end of their careers thanks to modern fitness and recovery regimens Nelson has trained with a few of MacKinnon s people in modern offseasons and now he s going to have year-round VIP access There s also the surrounding context No disrespect to the Islanders but skating alongside two of Artturi Lehkonen Martin Necas Nichushkin or a healthy Landeskog could be one of the best lines he s ever played on And he s never had a participant like MacKinnon to absorb the attention of an opposing club s top defensive players Or a performer like Cale Makar to get him the puck in open ice The Avs have to expect several attrition from Nelson s overall championship in the coming seasons but he might be able to keep it to a minimum There s also particular vulnerability in what the Avalanche gave up to get Nelson The contract and the agreement aren t part of the same transaction but had Nelson signed with another group next month giving up Calum Ritchie and a future first-round pick for games of the veteran center had the feasible to be one of the worst trades in franchise history Related Articles Avalanche s Nathan MacKinnon Cale Makar named to NHL postseason all-star squad Cale Makar wins second Norris Trophy continuing path to all-time great status Avalanche offseason reset What s next with Brock Nelson signed Logan O Connor injured Avalanche Journal The best individual seasons I ve covered as a beat writer Grading The Week Avalanche s Logan O Connor Hurry back Pete DeBoer Take your time Moving forward It can be a win-win for both sides Ritchie was the club s top prospect but players of his pedigree don t often have a slight dip in production in their post-draft seasons or end up as the fourth-most productive forward on a CHL company during an extended playoff run Ritchie did Whether or not he could become the Avs No center in the next season or three was not a certainty What happens next with Ritchie or the likely first-round pick isn t of the Avs concern but the club is likely to hear less external noise about it if Nelson has a healthy productive inadequate years in Denver Nelson gives the Avs a better chance to win the Stanley Cup in than Ritchie would have Likely in and maybe as well It s not a slam-dunk team-friendly deal but bringing Nelson back on this contract offers stability the club craved at a key spot and there s sound logic behind the decision Want more Avalanche news Sign up for the Avalanche Insider to get all our NHL analysis